Ash from Iceland’s Grimsvötn volcano could affect Heathrow by the end of the weekThis article titled “Ash cloud moves towards UK airspace” was written by Dan Milmo and Adam Gabbatt, for guardian.co.uk on Monday 23rd May 2011 10.04 UTCAirlines and airports have been warned to expect ash from an erupting Icelandic volcano to arrive in UK airspace by Tuesday, with the possibility that it could affect Heathrow airport by the end of the week.The safety watchdog for British airlines and airports, the Civil Aviation Authority, said today that particles from the Grimsvötn volcano could reach Scotland by midnight tonight and western England by Thursday or Friday, depending on wind direction.If airspace in western England, Ireland and the Atlantic is affected by the smoke plume transatlantic flights in and out of Heathrow could suffer delays later this week as planes are diverted around the most dense parts of the cloud.However, the Civil Aviation Authority said it was confident that a new Europe-wide safety regime introduced after the Eyjafjallajökull eruption last year would reduce disruption significantly and avoid the continental shutdown that stranded millions. Under the new operating procedures, it is understood that the effect of last year’s plume on commercial routes would have been 75% smaller.Nonetheless, some disruption is expected as airplanes divert around the heaviest parts of the cloud. According to the latest forecasts, Inverness and Aberdeen are the most likely airports to suffer disruption tomorrow, although the most accurate estimates can only predict six hours ahead.“Our number one priority is to ensure the safety of people both on board aircraft and on the ground. We can’t rule out disruption, but the new arrangements that have been put in place since last year’s ash cloud mean the aviation sector is better prepared and will help to reduce any disruption in the event that volcanic ash affects UK airspace,” said Andrew Haines, CAA chief executive.Under previous guidelines, aircraft were summarily grounded if there was any volcanic ash in the air. Now, airlines can fly through ash plumes if they can demonstrate that their fleets can handle medium or high-level densities of ash.The Met Office’s volcanic ash advisory centre will identify the density and location of the cloud, aided by satellite images, weather balloons and a radar specially installed for monitoring purposes in Iceland last year. Once those zones are relayed to airlines, they will need to prove that they can fly through them by producing “safety cases” that will include information from aircraft and engine manufacturers on the airline’s tolerance to volcanic ash.A CAA spokesman said all major UK airlines already had safety preparations for medium-density ash clouds.“We are in a much better position than last time,” he said. “Safety will still be paramount but we will be able to drastically reduce disruption compared to last time, provided there is not a huge amount of high-density ash.” The spokesman said a similar level of ash to the Eyjafjallajökull incident would not result in a mass-grounding. “It will be a different picture.” However, jets will have to divert around high-density clouds, causing delays on some routes, because no UK airline has submitted a safety case for flying through heavy ash plumes.BAA, the owner of Heathrow, Stansted, Edinburgh, Glasgow and Aberdeen airports, has convened a crisis support team to prepare for a reduction in flights, as airlines and airports await a further briefing from Eurocontrol and the UK air traffic controller, Nats. “We are working closely with the CAA and Nats in preparing contingency plans if ash enters UK airspace,” it said.Under the new ash guidelines, cloud densities are split into three levels: low, medium and high. Once the Met Office assigns a particular density of ash to a section of airspace, airlines must prove they have the safety case to fly through it. A low density cloud is 2g of ash per 10 cubic metres of air, with medium being 2g to 4g of ash per 10 cubic metres. Anything above 4g is deemed high density.The Grimsvötn volcano began erupting on Sunday, causing flights to be cancelled at Iceland’s main Keflavik airport after it sent a plume of ash, smoke and steam 12 miles into the air. Experts have said the eruption was unlikely to have the dramatic impact that the Eyjafjallajökull volcano had in April 2010.“At the moment if the volcano continues to erupt to the same level it has been, and is now, the UK could be at risk of seeing volcanic ash later this week,” said Helen Chivers, a Met Office spokeswoman. “Quite when and how much we can’t really define at the moment.”She said the weather situation was likely to be different from last year, with the wind direction set to change continuously. She added: “If it moves in the way that we’re currently looking, with the eruption continuing the way it is, then if the UK is at risk later this week, then France and Spain could be as well.”While the ash has grounded aircraft in Iceland, it is not anticipated that it will have a similar impact in the rest of Europe.Dr Dave McGarvie, volcanologist at the Open University, said the amount of ash reaching the UK was “likely to be less than in the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption”, and the last two times Grimsvötn erupted it had not affected UK air travel.“In addition, the experience gained from the 2010 eruption, especially by the Met Office, the airline industry, and the engine manufacturers, should mean less disruption to travellers,” he said.The eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in south-east Iceland in April 2010 caused the worst disruption to international air travel since 9/11. Flights across Europe were cancelled for six days, stranding tens of thousands of people, and the eruption was estimated to have cost airlines £130m a day.Eurocontrol said in a statement: “There is currently no impact on European or transatlantic flights and the situation is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. Aircraft operators are constantly being kept informed of the evolving situation.” guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2010Published via the Guardian News Feed plugin for WordPress.Thanks for subscribing to Andy Roberts blogAsh cloud moves towards UK airspaceRelated posts:How to pronounce EyjafjallajoekullAsh Grounds Planes, Rest Of World Cut OffTag Cloud
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Ash cloud moves towards UK airspace
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May 23 2011, 4:09pm | Comments »
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Flybe profit warning sends share price crashing down
http://distributedresearch.net/blog/2011/05/05/flybe-profit-warning-sends-share-price-crashing-down
Flybe shares drop 25% as airline admits cash-strapped consumers are cutting back on air travel
This article titled “Flybe profit warning sends share price crashing down” was written by Dan Milmo, for The Guardian on Thursday 5th May 2011 16.42 UTC Flybe’s £215m flotation has come crashing down as the carrier’s shares shed 25% of their value in the wake of a profit warning over waning consumer appetite for air travel. The Exeter-based regional carrier bases its appeal on “affordable travel from the most convenient airport” but admitted that lower high street spending in the UK had affected demand for cheap flights since the new year, with domestic routes among the hardest hit. Despite warning of cash-strapped customers, Flybe also announced a £3 fuel surcharge on all flights from September. Flybe said the slowdown in consumer outlay, already indicated by trading woes at high street names such as HMV and Mothercare, had affected “discretionary spend” on air travel and triggered significant analysts’ downgrades. Flybe said it expected pre-tax profits for this year to be broadly in line with the 2010/11 figures, which put it heavily out of kilter with analysts’ expectations. Investors ignored Flybe’s defence of its “resilient and flexible” business model of flying from small airports such as Southampton and Norwich, and sold the shares heavily. Shareholders had expected a pre-tax profit of about £36m, not the £22m indicated in the trading update, and Flybe’s shares slumped 25% to 172.50p, far below the flotation price of 295p last December. Flybe’s new investors included George Soros, the hedge fund tycoon, who acquired a 3.4% stake on flotation and whose more assured bets included starting a run on the pound in 1992. British Airways owns a further 15% of the business. One of the pioneers of add-on charges including baggage fees when it rebranded from British European in 2002, Flybe said the £3 fuel surcharge would be dropped if the price of Brent crude fell below $75 (£45.60) per barrel for 28 consecutive days; its current price is $117 per barrel. Flybe also indicated cutbacks on its domestic routes as it flagged the possible disposal of surplus aircraft, believed to include the Bombardier Q400 turboprop planes that are used on its UK services. In its trading update the company did not expand on its strategy of building its presence in continental Europe but it is understood that Flybe is standing by plans to add 35 Embraer aircraft to its 68-strong fleet, with the option of buying 105 more. The £66m float proceeds have been earmarked for the expansion, which includes codeshare deals where it operates flights on another carrier’s behalf. Iata warning The International Air Transport Association (Iata) warned that the financial markets have taken a bearish stance on airlines. Airline share prices have underperformed stock markets by 17% this year, Iata said, and investors now fear that carriers will be hard hit by higher fuel costs – about a quarter of the industry’s cost base – and the consequent effect on demand as higher prices hit sales. “Financial markets, bullish over airlines through 2010, now believe the industry will suffer more than most in this high fuel cost and demand-shock environment,” said Iata. Flybe said demand from business travellers, who account for 45% of its customers, remained strong. “This sector has proved very resilient,” said Flybe, echoing recent comments by Iata, which said demand for business class travel was holding up more strongly than in the back of the cabin. The premium airline market grew 7.7% in February, compared with a 3.3% improvement in economy class traffic.
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May 5 2011, 12:46pm | Comments »
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Marks & Spencer makes Paris comeback with Champs Elysées store
New Marks and Spencers shop to open in Paris France 10 years after controversial retreat. Items on offer will include food – by popular demand.
This article titled “Marks & Spencer makes Paris comeback with Champs Elysées store” was written by Kim Willsher in Paris, Dan Milmo and Marie Winckler, for The Guardian on Friday 1st April 2011 17.54 UTC Shortbread and Earl Grey tea are heading back to the Champs Elysées later this year as Marks & Spencer returns to France, a decade after its retreat across the Channel prompted street protests in Paris. The retailer replanted a British flag in the heart of the Gallic retail industry by announcing, 10 years after it quit the capital amid stern criticism from trade unions, politicians and ardent muffin fans, that it would open a shop on Paris’s most famous boulevard before Christmas. The retailer is opening a three-storey outlet on the Champs Elysées, towards the end of this year. What is more, following a clamour by British organisations in France and threats of a boycott, it will be selling not only women’s clothing and lingerie – as first thought – but also food. Thoughts of ready meals and cheddar cheese may still appal a nation that gave the world haute cuisine. But French foodies have a grudging respect for the venerable British retailer, and Parisians were excited about the “grand retour”. Comments on French newspaper websites were overwhelmingly positive. Audrey Guttman, 23-year-old Parisienne arts consultant, said: “Special occasions in my childhood were peppered with Marks and Spencer delights such as Bugs Bunny-shaped fried chicken and Percy Pigs soft candy. I was devastated when they left, and the same items coming in from London just didn’t quite taste the same afterwards.” However, like many she was doubtful about the uncool choice of location: “Really, Marks and Spencer, the Champs-Elysées?! It’s not 1999 anymore!” French blogger Wendy Nourry Breguet, 25, added: “As a Frenchie, Marks & Spencer has always been an Ali Baba’s cave of food, fresh products, spices, foreign foods, which are absent from most French shops.” Pierre Cornette, a 28-year-old gallery owner was less convinced: “M&S plays on its super image in France for quality and tradition, but I can’t really see how it’s going to sell its English products to a Paris clientele, above all in this age of organic produce.” As well as the 1,000 sq metre Champs Elysées shop, there will also be five Simply Food stores at “transport hubs” such as railway stations in Paris and a “handful” of larger shops in and around the French capital. A website, trading in euros, will be launched and will be the group’s first to permit international purchases and deliveries across France. The original idea was for the new store to sell only clothing and home goods, in accordance with the lease on the prestigious Parisian floorspace. But a campaign persuaded executives to change their minds. British-born Pamela Lake, a Parisienne since 1963, who spearheaded the “no food, no go” campaign, said she and her British and French friends were delighted by the company’s apparent change of heart. “It would have been commercial suicide to do otherwise,” she said. “I shall be there for my double cream, bacon, sausages and Indian food.” She added: “I phoned my friends this morning and said ‘we’ve won’. Everyone was so pleased. When M&S closed here it was practically a day of national mourning for us in Paris. Now the company has admitted it was the biggest blunder they ever made.” She said French friends who joined the campaign would be looking forward to getting their Christmas crackers, mince pies and Christmas puddings. “They’ve also missed the Stilton cheese,” she said. All M&S stores in continental Europe were closed as the company battled to turn around its British business. Last year the former boss Sir Stuart Rose said the decision to pull out of Europe was a mistake, calling it “tragic”. The company’s chief executive, Marc Bolland, said the company was “very excited” about its return: “Over the past 10 years the number of demands … from people for us to come back has been enormous.” He added: “Our company has changed in a positive way and France has moved on as well. We want to come back in an extremely positive way.” Bolland has declared he wants to speed up the group’s international expansion and said there was scope for faster growth, particularly in Asian markets. M&S has 358 stores in 42 overseas territories.
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April 1 2011, 4:36pm | Comments »
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French high-speed rail on track but progress too slow on commuter lines
France’s TGV connecting with Eurostar is the envy of Europe, but the country’s commuter train services are creaking after years of under-investment
This article titled “French high-speed rail on track but progress too slow on commuter lines” was written by Dan Milmo, for The Guardian on Monday 21st March 2011 18.22 UTC If you want evidence that the French rail network isn’t all high-speed brilliance and world-class service, then pay a visit to the platforms in the bowels of Gare du Nord on a weekday morning. At only 7am commuters are vacuum-packed into carriages – it’s just like home. The most powerful person on the French railways, Guillaume Pepy, admits the system has unwanted similarities with Britain’s. Describing some of the worst pinch points around Paris, he says: “It is like Clapham Junction.” For decades France’s national rail operator, SNCF, has invested billions of euros into making its high-speed network the envy of Europe. France has 2,000km of ultra-fast track, compared with our tokenistic-looking 109km. But until recently, the country’s regional services have been neglected at the expense of their speedier cousins. Pepy, SNCF’s 52-year-old chief executive, who describes himself as an “old railway worker”, says commuters have been overlooked as a huge effort was launched to lure the long-distance traveller out of planes and cars and on to trains. “There are passenger protests every day and they are right. I would like to have mass-transit services with the same quality of service as the TGV [high-speed rail]. Let’s put all the mass transit services to the same level. If we can run 850 TGV services per day, why can we not serve millions of people at 120km per hour every day? We need more innovation, money, the best engineers. It will take five, 10 years – I don’t know. But there is no reason why we should have poor mass-transit services and brilliant TGV services.” Jean-Paul Jacquot, a vice-president at France’s rail passenger watchdog, FNAUT, tells a tale of historic under-investment that will be familiar to UK commuters. “The rail network has been neglected during the past 10 to 20 years and therefore it breaks down quite often.” Pepy talks of at least 15 “traffic jam” points around Paris – both the French and British rail networks carry more than one billion passenger journeys a year. While Pepy is turning round SNCF’s commuter arm, construction is drawing to a close on the seventh TGV line, between the eastern town of Belfort and Dijon in the centre. Despite the successful opening of the modern channel tunnel link, most of the UK’s network dates from the Victorian era. But Pepy, an alumnus of the elite École Nationale d’Administration, is too diplomatic to compare Britain’s rail network unfavourably with its continental rival. “Personally I think that sometimes you are over-criticising your own railways. You have done a lot of things. Look at what you have done in terms of rolling stock; High Speed One. It is the best [high-speed line] in terms of reliability in Europe. I have to say that it works better than in France.” Given that France and the UK are learning the same painful lesson on commuter routes – under-invest at your peril – its extensive high-speed network still makes France the example to follow in rail. Pepy takes out a “crazy but fun” map that shrinks the distance between French cities according to the speed of their TGV links. Under this form of cartography, the sprawling country resembles a clenched fist as major cities like Marseille and Strasbourg are brought within hours of the capital. “You can see that France has shrunk dramatically,” he says. “It means that the communities, business, culture, intellect, health, everything is closer than it was.” In the UK, the high-speed London-to-Birmingham route is earmarked to open in 2026 but the £17bn project has been criticised by environmentalists and business leaders as a waste of money. Pepy is sympathetic – he says France has been through the same debate “seven times” – but he is adamant that the UK will benefit from high-speed. “Everything about high-speed is related to the long-term. We build the line for 50, 70 years and the system is a long-term answer to the community’s needs. If you just consider it on a short-term basis you would not be able to find a good business case.” Looking further afield, he adds: “I am very impressed that China has the same problem. It said ten years ago are we going to develop air transportation or have a high-speed rail system? And China made the choice in favour of high-speed rail.” As agreeable as he is, surely Pepy will be drawn into a testier state by a question on fares, the great bugbear of the British rail passenger. Instead, he is sanguine. TGV fares compare favourably with airlines and up to 65% of the price of commuter fares is subsidised by local authorities. Jacquot agrees: for all the problems with non-TGV services, exorbitant cost is not one of them. Pepy adds: “It is a decision to subsidise fares instead of building new roads, which is an historical choice in France.” Recent investment in transport indicates that the UK has made the same choice, but we’re a long way from catching up with le TGV.
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March 22 2011, 8:04am | Comments »
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London to Frankfurt high-speed rail link back on track for Eurostar Deals to Germany
http://distributedresearch.net/blog/2011/03/20/londontofrankfurt-highspeedrail-germaneurostardeals
Deutsche Bahn plans to run 200mph trains from London to Frankfurt, Cologne, Amsterdam and Rotterdam from 2013 for German Eurostar Deals. Safety concern about having an electric motor engine underneath every carriage as the trains travels through the Channel tunnel are to be swept aside in a rush for truly pan-european high speed rail travel, more than just Paris breaks.
This article titled “London to Frankfurt high-speed rail link back on track” was written by Dan Milmo, for The Guardian on Sunday 20th March 2011 17.45 UTC Plans to transport 1 million rail passengers a year between Frankfurt and London are back on track as an independent report prepares to back German rail operator Deutsche Bahn in a row over Channel tunnel safety. DB’s ambition to launch a Teutonic Eurostar has been threatened by French objections to the state-of-the-art rolling stock it plans to use in the tunnel. David Cameron and Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, are believed to have raised their concerns about the row with the French government, amid fears that it will hinder the growth of pan-European high speed rail services. However, this week the European Railways Agency is expected to endorse new trains manufactured by Siemens, the German industrial group, which beat France’s Alstom to a coveted Eurostar rolling stock order. The order for inter-city express (ICE) trains, which will also be used by DB in its Frankfurt-to-London service, met with opposition on the other side of the tunnel. The French government supported Alstom’s argument that the Siemens trains are unsafe because their motors are distributed under each carriage. The row split the Anglo-French intergovernmental commission (IGC) on channel tunnel safety, which resulted in the ERA being asked for a second opinion. Sources close to the process said the ERA is likely to recommend that so-called “distributed power” trains can be used in the tunnel, clearing the way for the ICE carriages. It is also understood that the report will not raise objections to DB’s proposal to couple two separate trains – a proposal that raised safety concerns in some quarters. As a consequence, the IGC is expected to come under further pressure to allow the ICE trains to operate through the tunnel. DB plans to run 200mph trains from London to Frankfurt, Cologne, Amsterdam and Rotterdam from December 2013, expanding the rail market between Britain and the continent by 10% by carrying 1 million passengers a year.
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March 20 2011, 1:41pm | Comments »
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Leeds to Paris in four hours – but high-speed rail plan faces protests
http://distributedresearch.net/blog/2011/03/02/leeds-paris-eurostar-high-speed-rail-plan-protests
Leeds to Paris by Eurostar in four hours when the high speed rail network is completed.
This article titled “Leeds to Paris in four hours – but high-speed rail plan faces protests” was written by Dan Milmo and Martin Wainwright, for The Guardian on Monday 28th February 2011 19.51 UTC The battleground over a £32bn high-speed rail network moved from the shires to the north after the government outlined the case for a second phase linking Birmingham to Manchester and Leeds. Undaunted by a backlash in Tory heartlands over plans for a 225mph London-to-Birmingham line, the transport secretary, Philip Hammond, backed plans for joining it to a Y-shaped national network. The proposals include a link to the Channel tunnel rail route that would transport passengers in Manchester and Leeds to Paris in less than four hours without a London stopover. However, the proposals for 200 miles of new track are likely to be of more immediate concern to the thousands of households that line the potential routes in Yorkshire, Staffordshire, Cheshire and Derbyshire. The Campaign to Protect Rural England (CPRE) said the economic arguments in favour of the northern extension of High Speed Two (HS2) could be drowned out by protests over blight. “As this proceeds, we are going to hear some very different voices from the north, arguing passionately about the beautiful local countryside,” said Ralph Smyth, CPRE’s senior transport campaigner. “Take the Cheshire area around Wilmslow, which lies right on the likely route of the Birmingham-to-Manchester line. You have got very wealthy, very influential people there, who are not going to take happily to HS2 driving through.” Launching a consultation on a national high-speed network, Hammond was confident that the economic case would prove more powerful with residents in the north than it has in the home counties, with the full route forecast to produce a £44bn boost to the UK. “Ironically the further north we get the easier it will get. Once you get further away from the south-east people seem to understand more clearly the argument on jobs and growth.” According to the Department for Transport, the first phase alone would help create 40,000 jobs. Hammond said the northern section could open in 2032, six years after the London-to-Birmingham route. A consultation on the specific route will start next year after detailed plans are published. It is understood that more than a dozen routes are under consideration for phase 2, which will be reduced to a shortlist by early 2012. If the proposals receive the green light, journey times to Manchester and Leeds from London will be reduced from more than two hours to 73 and 80 minutes respectively. Sources said planning for the Birmingham-to-Leeds section has proved particularly challenging, due to the hilly landscape and the number of small mining communities and former collieries dotted along the potential route. “It is a complicated landscape,” said one expert. Hammond said ramblers in the Peak District would not be disturbed by bullet trains tearing through an area of outstanding natural beauty, with the Birmingham-to-Leeds line likely to pass between Derby and Nottingham, and to the east of one of Britain’s most stunning national parks. However, the Chiltern Hills, another area of outstanding natural beauty, have been less fortunate and the first phase of the network will pass through the area when the line opens in 2026. Hammond said environmentally friendly amendments to the London-to-Birmingham route published in the consultation, such as deeper cuttings, would be repeated when the northern extension is drafted: “We will be doing exactly the same as we are doing in the Chilterns. We will work with communities and engineers to minimise the effect on sensitive landscapes.” The Department for Transport is confident the rail route will challenge one of the major bastions of domestic aviation – the London to Scotland route – with a forecast journey time of three-and-a-half hours. Rail would take half of the air-rail market, the consultation argued. The current figure stands at 20%. Under the proposals high-speed trains will leave the network at Manchester and Leeds and travel to Scotland on conventional lines. The consultation argues that high-speed rail is the obvious solution to a looming capacity shortage on England’s major rail routes, pointing out that passengers are already forced to stand up on peak-hour services on those lines. The document states: “Long-term forecasts have been developed on demand growth on these three main north-south lines out of London which connect the majority of Britain’s major cities. These forecasts look forward to the early 2040s and show that, even allowing for a range of enhancements to these lines, crowding levels on long-distance services will continue to rise.” However, the debates over blight and economics are likely to rumble on. Critics of the programme pounced on revised figures in the consultation, which showed that the economic benefit of the first phase would equate to £2 for every £1 spent, instead of the £2.70 that was forecast last year. “That is mediocre value for money by official Treasury standards,” said Stephen Glaister, director of the RAC Foundation. A government source said that earlier estimates had been based on “fantastical” forecasts by the Labour government.
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March 2 2011, 12:44pm | Comments »
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