Ash from Iceland’s Grimsvötn volcano could affect Heathrow by the end of the weekThis article titled “Ash cloud moves towards UK airspace” was written by Dan Milmo and Adam Gabbatt, for guardian.co.uk on Monday 23rd May 2011 10.04 UTCAirlines and airports have been warned to expect ash from an erupting Icelandic volcano to arrive in UK airspace by Tuesday, with the possibility that it could affect Heathrow airport by the end of the week.The safety watchdog for British airlines and airports, the Civil Aviation Authority, said today that particles from the Grimsvötn volcano could reach Scotland by midnight tonight and western England by Thursday or Friday, depending on wind direction.If airspace in western England, Ireland and the Atlantic is affected by the smoke plume transatlantic flights in and out of Heathrow could suffer delays later this week as planes are diverted around the most dense parts of the cloud.However, the Civil Aviation Authority said it was confident that a new Europe-wide safety regime introduced after the Eyjafjallajökull eruption last year would reduce disruption significantly and avoid the continental shutdown that stranded millions. Under the new operating procedures, it is understood that the effect of last year’s plume on commercial routes would have been 75% smaller.Nonetheless, some disruption is expected as airplanes divert around the heaviest parts of the cloud. According to the latest forecasts, Inverness and Aberdeen are the most likely airports to suffer disruption tomorrow, although the most accurate estimates can only predict six hours ahead.“Our number one priority is to ensure the safety of people both on board aircraft and on the ground. We can’t rule out disruption, but the new arrangements that have been put in place since last year’s ash cloud mean the aviation sector is better prepared and will help to reduce any disruption in the event that volcanic ash affects UK airspace,” said Andrew Haines, CAA chief executive.Under previous guidelines, aircraft were summarily grounded if there was any volcanic ash in the air. Now, airlines can fly through ash plumes if they can demonstrate that their fleets can handle medium or high-level densities of ash.The Met Office’s volcanic ash advisory centre will identify the density and location of the cloud, aided by satellite images, weather balloons and a radar specially installed for monitoring purposes in Iceland last year. Once those zones are relayed to airlines, they will need to prove that they can fly through them by producing “safety cases” that will include information from aircraft and engine manufacturers on the airline’s tolerance to volcanic ash.A CAA spokesman said all major UK airlines already had safety preparations for medium-density ash clouds.“We are in a much better position than last time,” he said. “Safety will still be paramount but we will be able to drastically reduce disruption compared to last time, provided there is not a huge amount of high-density ash.” The spokesman said a similar level of ash to the Eyjafjallajökull incident would not result in a mass-grounding. “It will be a different picture.” However, jets will have to divert around high-density clouds, causing delays on some routes, because no UK airline has submitted a safety case for flying through heavy ash plumes.BAA, the owner of Heathrow, Stansted, Edinburgh, Glasgow and Aberdeen airports, has convened a crisis support team to prepare for a reduction in flights, as airlines and airports await a further briefing from Eurocontrol and the UK air traffic controller, Nats. “We are working closely with the CAA and Nats in preparing contingency plans if ash enters UK airspace,” it said.Under the new ash guidelines, cloud densities are split into three levels: low, medium and high. Once the Met Office assigns a particular density of ash to a section of airspace, airlines must prove they have the safety case to fly through it. A low density cloud is 2g of ash per 10 cubic metres of air, with medium being 2g to 4g of ash per 10 cubic metres. Anything above 4g is deemed high density.The Grimsvötn volcano began erupting on Sunday, causing flights to be cancelled at Iceland’s main Keflavik airport after it sent a plume of ash, smoke and steam 12 miles into the air. Experts have said the eruption was unlikely to have the dramatic impact that the Eyjafjallajökull volcano had in April 2010.“At the moment if the volcano continues to erupt to the same level it has been, and is now, the UK could be at risk of seeing volcanic ash later this week,” said Helen Chivers, a Met Office spokeswoman. “Quite when and how much we can’t really define at the moment.”She said the weather situation was likely to be different from last year, with the wind direction set to change continuously. She added: “If it moves in the way that we’re currently looking, with the eruption continuing the way it is, then if the UK is at risk later this week, then France and Spain could be as well.”While the ash has grounded aircraft in Iceland, it is not anticipated that it will have a similar impact in the rest of Europe.Dr Dave McGarvie, volcanologist at the Open University, said the amount of ash reaching the UK was “likely to be less than in the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption”, and the last two times Grimsvötn erupted it had not affected UK air travel.“In addition, the experience gained from the 2010 eruption, especially by the Met Office, the airline industry, and the engine manufacturers, should mean less disruption to travellers,” he said.The eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in south-east Iceland in April 2010 caused the worst disruption to international air travel since 9/11. Flights across Europe were cancelled for six days, stranding tens of thousands of people, and the eruption was estimated to have cost airlines £130m a day.Eurocontrol said in a statement: “There is currently no impact on European or transatlantic flights and the situation is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. Aircraft operators are constantly being kept informed of the evolving situation.” guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2010Published via the Guardian News Feed plugin for WordPress.Thanks for subscribing to Andy Roberts blogAsh cloud moves towards UK airspaceRelated posts:How to pronounce EyjafjallajoekullAsh Grounds Planes, Rest Of World Cut OffTag Cloud
-
I posted to distributedresearch.net
Ash cloud moves towards UK airspace
http://distributedresearch.net/blog/2011/05/23/ash-cloud-moves-towards-uk-airspace
- Tags:
- iceland
- transport
- UK
- Travel
- scotland
- airline
- Airport
- volcano
- aircraft
- Europe
- United Kingdom
- business
- Edinburgh
- UK news
- News
- Article
- World news
- Dan Milmo
- Natural disasters and extreme weather
- disruption
- Airline industry
- Adam Gabbatt
- Atlantic
- Glasgow
- Air transport
- ash cloud
- aviation
- BAA
- british airlines
- heathrow airport
- smoke plume
- transatlantic flights
- uk airspace
- volcanic ash
May 23 2011, 4:09pm | Comments »
-
I posted to distributedresearch.net
Sleep in or work from home: minister’s plans to ease rush hour
I’ve been doing this for 3 or 4 years now. Transport minister says ‘it is crazy these days for people to go to work when work can come to people’ But once people get the taste for working from home, they may well also realise that it isn’t necessary to work for corporations any more either, and so the pyjama nation disruption of old work patterns continues apace.
This article titled “Sleep in or work from home: minister’s plans to ease rush hour” was written by Polly Curtis, Whitehall correspondent, for The Guardian on Wednesday 6th April 2011 23.07 UTC The transport minister, Norman Baker, wants to dramatically reduce rush hour in the capital and across the country by convincing companies to let people work from home, come in late, or set up satellite offices that will create commuting routes which go against existing traffic. Ministers are investigating tactics to “nudge” people into abandoning the rush hour, such as convincing train, tube and bus companies to offer bigger discounts for travelling outside the busiest hours. Instead of just peak and off-peak fares, the price of a journey could be staggered incrementally, with the most expensive fares around the times of 9am and 5pm. The system could be organised so that a 6.30am fare is cheaper than a 7.30am fare, for instance. “It is crazy these days for people to go to work when work can come to people. It is even crazier that we all travel on the same train on the same day at the same time. We should be able to spread the peak across different times,” Baker said. The plan would reduce carbon emissions, but ministers are also warning that there is urgency to fast-track changes to the rush hour because of the Olympics, warning that it would be “impossible” for the capital to accommodate the visitors anticipated for the games as well as going about its business as usual. Baker said: “We are going to have a gigantic influx of people all wanting to travel to see their events and it is simply not possible for everything to keep running if every one carries on as normal, so you have got to work differently to do this.” “This is not just the Olympics. It is winter too. Should business shut down when it snows? No. Should government spend taxpayers’ money investing in hundreds of snow ploughs? No. We should make sure we can carry on in business and government without everyone needing to travel in that period.” Options being considered include new “office hubs” in rural areas which would allow people to hotdesk closer to home. Some might have childcare facilities attached in “co-working” zones. Flexi-working, late or early starts, could stagger the rush hour and give people a greater work-life balance. More video-conferencing might mean people don’t have to leave home at all. The Trades Union Congress is backing the consultation. A TUC spokesman said they were pleased the minister was taking an interest. Staggering payments to encourage people to travel outside rush hour have been most stringently applied in Singapore, which also began the first road-pricing scheme in 1975. The system adjusts the price according to how busy the roads are at the time of driving. Singapore also has some of the world’s highest car taxes, and new cars are rationed in a bid to keep the state, the size of the Isle of Wight and having 4 million residents, congestion free.
guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2010 Published via the Guardian News Feed plugin for WordPress.
Thanks for subscribing to Andy Roberts blogSleep in or work from home: minister’s plans to ease rush hour
Related posts:Friday rush hour Half an Hour Japan ministers ignored safety warnings over nuclear reactors
- Tags:
- transport
- internet
- politics
- train
- car
- Minister
- business
- Government
- The Guardian
- UK news
- Environment
- News
- Article
- Main section
- capital
- Transport policy
- disruption
- Polly Curtis
- trades union congress
- olympics
- bus companies
- carbon emissions
- fast track
- Pyjama
- Road transport
- rush hour
- satellite
- satellite offices
- Work & careers
- work patterns
- working from home
April 8 2011, 6:07am | Comments »
-
I posted to distributedresearch.net
Honda considers suspending UK production after Japanese crisis
Carmakers Honda are considering a plan for coping with the parts shortage in Swindon as the global impact of earthquake and tsunami takes hold
This article titled “Honda considers suspending UK production after Japanese crisis” was written by Tom Bawden and Justin McCurry in Tokyo, for The Observer on Saturday 2nd April 2011 23.13 UTC Honda could be forced to halt production at its car plant in Swindon next month as the repercussions of Japan’s devastating earthquake and tsunami reach British factories. At a crunch meeting this week, the Japanese carmaker will agree a plan on how to tackle the growing shortage of key components such as satnavs. Executives will discuss a range of options, including a temporary closure of the Swindon plant, which employs about 3,000 staff, or a period of reduced production. The plant makes about 165,000 Civics, CR-V compact SUVs, and Jazz superminis a year and is braced for a shortage of electronic, electrical and brake parts. Each car comprises about 20,000 parts, 10% to 15% of which come from Japan. A Honda spokesman said: “All scenarios are a possibility. There will be an impact, although it won’t be till May. We don’t yet know what to do to get around the issue, but a decision will be made some time this week.” Honda is by no means alone, with car manufacturers around the world expecting interruptions to production as component shortages spread worldwide. Toyota’s UK plants in Burnaston, near Derby, and in north Wales are to continue a ban on daily overtime and fortnightly Saturday shifts imposed around the middle of last month, while a Nissan spokesman said the group was “constantly monitoring the situation in the UK and all over its operations”. The shortage of parts in the UK is expected to become increasingly significant over the next month, since many components from Japan take six weeks to arrive. Paul Everitt, the chief executive of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), said: “The disruption in Japan will have an impact on the UK motor industry, but the scale and timing remain very uncertain.” Initially, carmakers had hoped that most component manufacturers in Japan would be up and running in time to ensure minimal interruptions to overseas supplies. However, in the past fortnight it has become increasingly apparent that the damage and power shortages in Japan will have an impact overseas. Professor ManMohan Sodhi, an expert in supply chain management at Cass Business School in London, said: “There has been an aftershock in car manufacturing that mirrors the aftershocks from an earthquake. They may be smaller, but they are still significant.” In Japan, the economic damage caused by the crisis is already evident. Sales of new vehicles plummeted by 37% in March, the biggest monthly decline since 1974. Although none of the major car manufacturers suffered serious damage to factories, most cannot return to full operation until at least mid-May. Toyota had to halt production at all 18 of its plants in Japan immediately after the earthquake, although two have since reopened to produce a limited number of Prius and two other hybrid models. Honda said it would resume making parts for export markets tomorrow, with production due to restart at all its Japanese factories seven days later – but only at half their original capacity. The firm has not said when manufacturing will return to normal. Nissan, which estimated that its production fell by 55,000 vehicles in March, said it would resume normal operations by mid-April at all but one of its assembly plants. The exception is a factory in Iwaki, north-east Japan, located just 50km from the stricken Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant.
guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2010 Published via the Guardian News Feed plugin for WordPress.
Thanks for subscribing to Andy Roberts blogHonda considers suspending UK production after Japanese crisis
Related posts:Japanese nuclear officials fear crack in reactor core Fukushima factor adds pressure to economic fallout from Japan’s crisis Cost of insuring Japanese government debt jumps
- Tags:
- London
- economics
- UK
- car
- Japan
- japanese
- jazz
- business
- british
- city
- UK news
- News
- Article
- Main section
- The Observer
- World news
- bus
- earthquake
- assembly
- closure
- Derby
- tsunami
- Nuclear power
- Tokyo
- Fukushima
- daiichi
- Justin McCurry
- nuclear power plant
- devastating earthquake
- disruption
- Japan disaster
- Nuclear
- north Wales
- Economic
- worldwide
- Automotive industry
- british factories
- car manufacturers
- car plant
- carmaker
- carmakers
- civics
- component shortages
- fortnightly
- global impact
- Honda
- interruptions
- motor manufacturers
- repercussions
- swindon plant
- Tom Bawden
- uk plants
April 6 2011, 6:32pm | Comments »
-
I posted to distributedresearch.net
Protest march against coalition cuts expected to attract 300,000
Police braced for high numbers of political demonstrators and protestors in London with 800 coaches and at least 10 trains chartered from around the UK
This article titled “Protest march against coalition cuts expected to attract 300,000″ was written by Polly Curtis, Matthew Taylor and Vikram Dodd, for The Guardian on Saturday 26th March 2011 00.52 UTC More than a quarter of a million protesters against public sector cuts are expected to flood central London today in the biggest political demonstration for nearly a decade. Police sources, normally cautious about estimating numbers, said last night they were braced for up to 300,000 people to join the march – far higher than previous forecasts from TUC organisers. More than 800 coaches and at least 10 trains have been chartered to bring people to the capital from as far afield as Cornwall and Inverness. The Metropolitan police, under fire for their use of kettling in previous protests, said “a small but significant minority” plan to hijack the march to stage violent attacks. Organisers, however, insist it will be a peaceful family event. Union members are expected be joined by a broad coalition, from pensioners to doctors, families and first-time protesters to football supporters and anarchists. Ed Miliband said the government was dragging the country back to the “rotten” 1980s. Labour is calling today’s event the “march of the mainstream”. The opposition leader will address the rally – his biggest audience ever – in Hyde Park to set out Labour’s alternative to the cuts, accusing the government of fomenting the “politics of division” not seen since Margaret Thatcher’s 1980s. His remarks are reinforced by a Guardian/ICM poll that shows the public divided over the cuts. Of 1,014 people questioned this week, 35% believe the cuts go too far, 28% say they strike the right balance and 29% say they don’t go far enough; 8% don’t know. Two other polls put the balance more strongly against cuts. A YouGov survey for Unison found that 56% believe the cuts are too harsh and a ComRes poll for ITV showed that two-thirds think the government should reconsider its planned spending cuts programme. Just one in five disagree with that view. The TUC organisers of the event said they had organised a family-friendly demonstration with brass, jazz and Bollywood bands. But with unofficial feeder marches, sit-down protests and a takeover of Trafalgar Square planned, there was increasing nervousness that acts of peaceful civil disobedience could lead to stand-offs with police and outbursts of violence. Shami Chakrabarti, director of Liberty, which is providing 100 legal observers along the route to monitor the scenes, said she had been heartened by advance co-operation between the TUC and police, but added: “Events around in the world show the precious nature of peaceful dissent guaranteed by our Human Rights Act. This fundamental freedom was hard won and is still much envied elsewhere. It must not be jeopardised either by over-zealous policing or anyone looking for trouble.” Miliband said in a speech in Nottingham: “I thought the politics of the 1980s were rotten because they divided our country. I fear that this government is practising the politics of division.” He argued that the government’s policies divided rich against poor, public sector workers against private sector workers and north against south. “These aren’t the voices of people marginal to our country but the voices of the mainstream majority in our country and that’s why I’ll be addressing the rally tomorrow,” he said. He had been told not to join the march because of safety concerns. The Tories called on Miliband and the TUC leader, Brendan Barber, to take responsibility for any disruption on the march. Michael Fallon, deputy chairman of the Conservative party, said: “Under Ed Miliband, Labour are abandoning the centre ground, retreating into their comfort zone of left-wing protest and cosying up to the unions.” Barber will tell the rally that no part of the public realm is protected from the cuts, highlighting the proposals to radically change the NHS. “Today let us say [to David Cameron]: we will not let you destroy what has taken generations to build,” he will say. The bulk of the march will be made up of trade unionists, with virtually all of the TUC’s 55 affiliated unions represented. Also among the marchers will be a coachload of mothers and toddlers from Hampshire demonstrating against the closure of Sure Start centres in the county. Catherine Ovenden, 31, said the decision to cut the service would have a devastating impact on families. “So many people rely on these centres and we are going to lose a third of them,” she said . The demonstration is timed to mark the new financial year next week, when many of the cuts kick in. Research by the Fabian Society suggests that taken with the wider tax and benefit reforms announced since the election, this week’s budget would in fact force large number of working families into tax, instead of lifting them out as the coalition has claimed. Tens of thousands of the lowest-income families will lose around 6% of their net income in the next year because of the government’s tax and benefit changes with the bulk of the cuts kicking in next week, the analysis by the Fabian Society shows. From next week the childcare element of the tax credit system will be reduced from 80% to 70% of qualifying families’ nursery bills. A family with one child and one earner earning up to £23,000 will lose between 5.7% and 6.4% of their net income, compared with last year. This would cost such a family with an income of £6,000 £1,362 a year and a family on £23,000 £1,710 a year.
guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2010 Published via the Guardian News Feed plugin for WordPress.
Thanks for subscribing to Andy Roberts blogProtest march against coalition cuts expected to attract 300,000
Related posts:March for the alternative – live updates Anti-cuts campaigners plan to turn Trafalgar Square into Tahrir Square Bank of England governor blames spending cuts on bank bailouts
- Tags:
- London
- labour
- politics
- hyde-park
- trafalgar square
- central london
- David Cameron
- Conservative
- Economic policy
- The Guardian
- UK news
- Financial
- News
- Main section
- Protest
- Tahrir Square
- Society
- World news
- Top stories
- police
- Demonstrators
- Public finance
- Public sector cuts
- Public services policy
- Protestors
- demonstration
- Ed Miliband
- Margaret Thatcher
- disruption
- Matthew Taylor
- public sector workers
- Economic
- Anti-cuts
- Brendan Barber
- disobedience
- metropolitan police
- Opinion polls
- Organisers
- political demonstration
- Polly Curtis
- protest march
- Trade unions
- TUC
- Vikram Dodd
March 26 2011, 9:01am | Comments »
-
I posted to distributedresearch.net
Japanese nuclear officials fear crack in reactor core
http://distributedresearch.net/blog/2011/03/25/japanese-nuclear-officials-fear-crack-in-reactor-core
Possible core damage at the Japanese Fukushima nuclear power plant could be causing a leak of high levels of radiation and oh no! this is the number 3 reactor – the one with the much more deadly plutonium mixture. MOX = Plutonium-uranium mixed oxide fuel
This article titled “Japanese nuclear officials fear crack in reactor core” was written by Justin McCurry in Tokyo, for The Guardian on Friday 25th March 2011 09.12 UTC Nuclear safety officials in Japan fear the core of a reactor at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant may have cracked, causing a leak of high levels of radiation. Growing uncertainty over the state of the stricken reactor prompted the government to tell people living within a 12-19 mile (20-30km) radius of the plant to consider leaving their homes temporarily. The government’s chief spokesman, Yukio Edano, said 130,000 residents in the area had been encouraged to leave to improve their quality of life, not because their health was at risk. The nuclear emergency, 150 miles north of Tokyo, has caused severe disruption to business, supply routes and other services in the area. On Thursday, three workers were exposed to radiation after stepping in contaminated water in the turbine building of the No 3 reactor. They were trying to cool the crippled reactor when the accident occurred. “The contaminated water had 10,000 times the amount of radiation as would be found in water circulating from a normally operating reactor,” said Hidehiko Nishiyama, a spokesman for Japan’s nuclear safety agency. “It is possible that there is damage to the reactor.” Two of the men received possible beta ray burns to their legs. All three have been transferred to a special radiation treatment facility. Edano said the source of the leak remained unknown. “We are exploring every possibility, but we don’t think this is a new situation, rather that a certain amount of radiation may have leaked from the reactor. This is a possibility that we have been mentioning for some time. “But at this point we don’t know if the radiation is coming from the reactor itself or from another source.” Nuclear officials say the leak may have come from pipes or the reactor’s pool for storing spent fuel rods, which workers have been struggling to cool off since the plant was badly damaged in the 11 March earthquake and tsunami. Officials were preparing themselves for the possibility that the reactor core was damaged in an explosion three days after the disaster that destroyed its containment building. The reactor contains 170 tonnes of radioactive fuel in its core, and is the only one of the facility’s six reactors that contains the potentially more dangerous plutonium-uranium mixed oxide fuel. Thursday’s accident forced a temporary halt to work on two reactors while technicians check radiation levels. “We should try to avoid delays if at all possible, but we also need to ensure that the people working there are safe,” Nishiyama said.
guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2010 Published via the Guardian News Feed plugin for WordPress.
Thanks for subscribing to Andy Roberts blogJapanese nuclear officials fear crack in reactor core
Related posts:Japan nuclear reactor water-bombing has little effect Japanese nuclear plant hit by fire and third explosion Fukushima nuclear power plant second nuclear reactor explosion – Video
- Tags:
- Japan
- japanese
- Dam
- building
- bombing
- The Guardian
- Energy
- Environment
- News
- Article
- Main section
- World news
- International
- earthquake
- tsunami
- explosion
- nuclear meltdown
- Nuclear power
- nuclear safety
- radiation level
- radiation levels
- Tokyo
- Yukio Edano
- Fukushima
- radiation leak
- radiation leaks
- Justin McCurry
- nuclear power plant
- nuclear plant
- fuel rods
- contaminate
- Radiation
- disruption
- Hidehiko
- Japan disaster
- Nuclear
- nuclear reactor
- nuclear safety agency
- danger
- accident
- beta ray
- containment
- contaminated water
- mixed oxide fuel
- nuclear emergency
- nuclear officials
- number 3
- plutonium
- Plutonium-uranium
- radiation treatment
- reactor core
- safety officials
March 25 2011, 5:21am | Comments »
-
I posted to distributedresearch.net
Fukushima factor adds pressure to economic fallout from Japan’s crisis
Natural disasters are normally followed by v-shaped economic recessions, but the Japanese nuclear power plant explosions have complicated risk assessments.
This article titled “Fukushima factor adds pressure to economic fallout from Japan’s crisis” was written by Larry Elliott, for The Guardian on Tuesday 15th March 2011 20.16 UTC The three explosions at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant in Japan have made the economic impact of last week’s natural disaster far more difficult to assess than the two templates used by analysts – the Kyoto earthquake in 1995 and Hurricane Katrina a decade later – would suggest. Normally, natural disasters are followed by v-shaped recessions. Output is badly affected in the short term, as infrastructure is knocked out and people can’t work or shop. Output falls sharply for three to six months, but then rebounds as the reconstruction starts. Government money is poured into the affected areas, leading to a mini-construction boom as homes, roads and power supplies are rebuilt. Pent-up spending from the period immediately after the crisis is unleashed. Despite Japan’s weak public finances, analysts would expect Tokyo to come up with the money to rebuild the north-eastern parts of the country affected by last week’s earthquake and tsunami. What makes this crisis different is the nuclear dimension. The three explosions at the Fukushima Daiichi plant puts this incident into a different category from either Kyoto or Katrina. There has been disruption to power supplies and people have been evacuated from a 12-mile exclusion zone around the plant, but it could potentially become far more widespread unless the Japanese can shut the plant down safely and quickly. Some analysts were last night starting to imagine what might happen in the event Tokyo, with 13 million people in its metropolitan district, had to be evacuated because of a radiation cloud heading its way. The economic costs of such an event would be astronomic. In Europe Japan’s crisis is already having an impact. Angela Merkel has ordered a temporary shutdown of Germany’s pre-1980s nuclear stations, which according to estimates account for 7% of the country’s power. That is a significant energy loss for a country that is growing robustly. The second factor is the impact the Sendai earthquake will have on consumer and business confidence. At present the global economy is characterised by a high degree of uncertainty, over the situation in north Africa and the Middle East and now over Japan. Economists think they have a way of quantifying this uncertainty, but they don’t. So while, in theory, it should be possible to do a full-scale risk assessment of the impact of Japan on, say, the UK, that is not really possible. In theory, the effects should be limited, because Japan is not a major trading partner for the UK and the days of intensive Japanese inward investment are over. The complexity of global supply chains for the goods in which Japan is world leader could mean delays and disruptions in some sectors, – such as consumer electronics and cars – depending on how badly the major Japanese multinationals are affected by shortages of power and materials. One big unknown for the UK is the oil price, which has been adding to inflationary pressure in recent months but has fallen since late last week because traders believe the paralysis in Japan will lead to a drop in global demand. That trend may not last. If it does have a v-shaped recovery Japan will quickly return to more normal levels of oil usage. Meanwhile, the unrest in Bahrain is evidence that the problems for governments in the Middle East are far from over. So estimates that Japan’s crisis will shave perhaps 0.1% or 0.2% off global growth this year, with a similar rebound in 2012, are little more than guesswork. It could be a lot worse than that.
guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2010 Published via the Guardian News Feed plugin for WordPress.
Thanks for subscribing to Andy Roberts blogFukushima factor adds pressure to economic fallout from Japan’s crisis
Related posts:Fukushima fallout: the risks to health Fukushima nuclear plant blast puts Japan on high alert Fukushima nuclear power plant second nuclear reactor explosion – Video
- Tags:
- economics
- Japan
- Cloud
- business
- The Guardian
- Energy
- News
- Article
- Main section
- World news
- Top stories
- Global economy
- earthquake
- Natural disasters
- Bahrain
- infrastructure
- Larry Elliott
- Mervyn King
- Natural disasters and extreme weather
- Japan earthquake and tsunami
- explosion
- nuclear power stations
- Sendai
- Fukushima
- Katrina
- Angela Merkel
- Analysis
- government debt
- public finances
- japanese nuclear plant
- economic fallout
- complexity
- construction boom
- disruption
- economic costs
- economic impact
- economic recessions
- government money
- natural disaster
- north Africa
- reconstruction
- recovery
- risk assessments
March 15 2011, 3:26pm | Comments »
1
