Dr David Hill ( from the World Innovation Foundation ?) left a comment on my previous post – “Swine Flu Caccination Plan” which I feel deserves to be promoted to a post of its own, below. He points out the real danger of a mutated swine flu variant, the problem with a vaccination plan due to the timescales involved, and proposes a solution for preventing swine flu and other fatal flu pandemics based on eradicating the conditions in which new variants arise. Here is the comment from Dr David Hill in full: The problem is that no one listens including the media. Swine flu if it mutates to something equivalent to the Spanish flu of 1918/1919 (Spanish flu was a swine flu variant) has the same potential to kill humans on an unprecedented scale as it did 90 years ago. The problem is that both swine and avian are constantly mutating into something different. So by the time you have isolated and made a vaccine for the last one, it has changed again and circumvented the old guard and becomes useless. The problem is that this happens all the time and where drugs become irrelevant. The reason, it takes three months to develop an antidote and 6 months to mass produce and distribute it (a logistic nightmare in itself alone) and where on average therefore the vast majority have to wait 9 months for the cure. The problem is that even in slow coach travel times 1918, the Spanish flu which took between 20 and 100 million lives worldwide (there is no authoritive number but where it is estimated between the two), did its deadliest between week 14 and week 26, some 12 weeks at least before the masses would ever receive the drug cure presently. The 1918 killer flu had a very similar circumstance as today, a mild version before the deadly version arrived in the fall of 1918 with a vengeance. The only way that this deadly killer can be stopped therefore, if anyone is listening out there, is through a complete overhaul of modern farming and husbandry methods and to give considerable financial help to those who breed the livestock that we all eat. Basically as a single example, just stop them sleeping with the animals on cold nights in the tropics as this is how the flu virus passes from pig to chicken to man – eventually; and where the pig is the receptive incubator. Simply give them a heater and fuel, a much cheaper option that global suicide in both human and econmic terms as it will be. For the ‘Tropics’ are where some of the most eminent virologists and micribiologists in the field say is the place where the killer virus will emerge.The philosophy of not letting it happen in the first place. The drugs strategy is futile and it is only a matter of time before the killer strain that will kill literally 100s millions appears. The problem is that the vast profits of drug companies and the government’s ignorance to the real facts will be the nails in all our coffins. The statistics and potential speak for themselves, World Population 2 billion – 1920 Range of deaths 20mil/2billion = 1 in 100 100mil/2billion = 5 in 100 World Population now at 6.8 billion now equates to, 1 in 100 – 70 million min. today 5 in 100 – 340 million max. today But, these figures could well be higher, as rapid world transit now makes for faster and wider transmission than in 1918. I therefore say lets start now as I have been saying for the past three years and defeat this mass killer like no other by field work and not the futile drugs strategy that will do very little indeed to save lives. For presently we are all fooling ourselves. If we put only £50 billion into this field work globally ( a small price for the human nightmare and financial melt-down that a global equivalent to Spanish flu would bring),we could eradicate the situation but where this £50 billion will no doubt end up alternatively in the pockets of the large pharmaceutical companies with little effect whatsoever. Get real everyone before it is basically too late and I am not joking – force governments to change their strategies from something that is impotent presently to something that will eradicate the problem at source. Common sense really but where currently no one seems to have any. Worryingly also is the fact that as examples of other problems on the horizon is that the United States makes only 20 percent of its flu vaccines it uses and my country Britain makes zero percent of its flu vaccines, as all its flu vaccines are produced abroad. When a killer pandemic happens it will be hard for the producing countries to release any before their own people are serviced. Little known but true (Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Diseases Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota – 16.07.09). I have been stopped from putting these comments and facts out by the media before. Let’s hope that minds are fully opened now and that the real solution can be heard and not just the bottom-line for drug companies! Dr David Hill
So Dr Hill has identified the main obstacles to implementing a simple cost effective solution to prevent swine flu – 1) World health strategies are distorted by the production of drugs for profit. 2) The production of food still takes place in semi-feudal conditions in large parts of the world. 3) Nation states will compete to look after their own populations first rather than collaborate internationally for the good of all. And hints at a solution – the people have to wake up and force governments to change strategies. He doesn’t go as far as I would, and point out that the implementation of a global plan to make food production safe and the harnessing of all the modern scientific understanding and technologies for the benefit of world health instead of the drugs companies can never take place all the while these means of production are in private hands run for the purpose only of making a profit for shareholders. So ‘forcing governments to change strategy’ will mean in practice, forcing governments to take over the industries involved and run them under some form of democratic ownership and control. The first step must be education and I hope the reproduction of this alternative viewpoint here stimulates further thinking and debate, and in due course maybe, action to prevent the possibility of further killer swine flu pandemics and other variants of what should surely be preventable human diseases.
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